AFCON 2023: History Shows Nigeria and Ivory Coast Will Make Finals Ahead of DRC and South Africa

• The penultimate stage of the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations is finally here
• Ivory Coast, Nigeria, South Africa and DR Congo will be vying for two final spots
• Sports Brief takes a look at the two teams history backs to reach the Gran Finale

The semifinal stage of the 2023 TotalEnergies CAF Africa Cup of Nations is now defined, featuring Nigeria, DR Congo, Ivory Coast, and South Africa as the four teams vying for the coveted title in the 34th edition of the continent's premier football competition.

Nigeria, three-time champions of the competition, secured their place in the last four with a narrow one-nil victory against dark horse Angola in a closely contested and nerve-wracking quarterfinal clash.

Following suit, DR Congo demonstrated strength by overcoming an early goal by Guinea, securing a 3-1 victory and their first win in the ongoing competition after four successive draws, Complete Sports reports.

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Host nation Ivory Coast continued their captivating performance, advancing to the last four in dramatic fashion, while South Africa completed the quartet with a penalty shootout victory over Cape Verde.

With a few days remaining for a new champion to emerge and dethrone the already-eliminated favourites Senegal, Sports Brief analyses why history suggests that Nigeria and Ivory Coast are the two teams likely to vie for the trophy on February 11.

Nigeria

Undoubtedly, the Super Eagles are the favourites to win this year's AFCON, which would take their trophy count to four, putting them on par with West African rivals and eternal foes Ghana.

Nigeria stands as the most experienced team at this stage. Despite facing initial challenges, notably an opening day draw against Equatorial Guinea, Jose Peseiro's men have built their title charge on a solid defence.

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They are set to face South Africa, another formidable side managed by 2017 winner Hugo Broos.

However, history indicates that the last time Bafana Bafana reached this stage of the competition, they faced the same opposition, and the outcome favoured their West African counterparts.

What happened in 2000

In the year 2000, the two sides clashed for a spot in the final.

Energized by the fervent crowd in Lagos, Nigeria took an early lead through winger Tijani Babangida, who scored within a minute of kick-off. Babangida's brace propelled Nigeria to victory and into the final.

The former Ajax forward then pounced on a pass from a teammate in the box before bending a right-footed effort into the top corner in the 34th minute. His brace helped Nigeria beat South Africa to reach the final 24 years ago.

H2H: Nigeria vs South Africa

Historically, Nigeria has held the upper hand against the Rainbow Nation, securing six wins in 11 matches, with South Africa recording just a solitary win, as per AiScore.

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In AFCON head-to-head encounters, the West Africans maintain a slight advantage, winning twice compared to South Africa's one, with three draws.

In simple terms, history favours Nigeria to triumph over South Africa and book a spot in the final.

Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast's journey in the 2023 AFCON has taken a cinematic turn.

Initially facing the brink of elimination with a shocking 4-0 defeat against Equatorial Guinea, the two-time African champions received a lifeline due to results in other groups.

Since then, they've displayed resilience, advancing to the semifinals under the guidance of their new manager, Emerse Fae, who took over after Jean-Louis Gasset's resignation.

In a gripping encounter against defending champions Senegal, Ivory Coast, trailing for over 80 minutes, found an equaliser through a spot-kick and went on to stun the Teranga Lions in a post-match penalty shootout.

Adding to the drama, Oumar Diakité's last-minute goal secured a dramatic victory against Mali, solidifying their place in the semifinals.

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Now set for their ninth semifinal appearance, Côte d'Ivoire is poised to face DR Congo, setting the stage for a rematch of the 2015 semifinal, as cited by CAFOnline.

What happened in 2015

In the 2015 encounter, skipper and Manchester City legend Yaya Toure led Ivory Coast to victory with a net-breaking shot to break the game's deadlock.

DR Congo found the equaliser shortly after when forward Dieumerci Mbokani scored from the spot after Eric Bailly had handled a ball in the box.

However, Gervinho restored the lead from a quick counter with a side-footed effort before half-time.

Wilfred Konan brought daylight between the two sides after the half-hour mark when he notched home from a rebound after the DR Congo goalkeeper Robert Kidiaba had parried away the initial attempt.

H2H: Ivory Coast vs DR Congo

Historically, Ivory Coast holds the upper hand with three wins to DR Congo's one in six matches, with the remaining encounters ending in draws.

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At the AFCON, the two nations have clashed four times, with the West Africans winning twice, drawing once, and suffering one loss.

Considering historical trends, Ivory Coast is positioned to surpass the Central African nation as they aim to become the first nation since Egypt in 2006 to host and win the AFCON.