World Cup: Top 10 Nations with The Highest Chance of Winning Global Tournament as Brazil Leads Line

World Cup: Top 10 Nations with The Highest Chance of Winning Global Tournament as Brazil Leads Line

Rene Otinga
updated at April 12, 2023 at 8:17 PM
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  • The last time Brazil won the World Cup was in 2002 when the legendary Ronaldo Nazario was still active
  • A supercomputer’s analysis however puts Seleção Canarinha as the nation most likely to win the World Cup in Qatar
  • Brazil as at the October 6 FIFA rankings, was placed first with 1841 points, ahead of Belgium

Brazil is the nation most likely to win the World Cup, according to data and analytics from a supercomputer.

Data from an artificial intelligence World Cup prediction model Opta puts Seleção ahead of any other nation in terms of the heavy hitters in the global spectacle in Qatar.

The results were arrived at by estimating each match’s outcome from a win, draw or loss using betting market odds.

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Neymar Jr. under pressure from Maya Yoshida and Yuta Nakayama of Japan during the international friendly match between Japan and Brazil at National Stadium on June 06, 2022. Photo by Etsuo Hara
Source: Getty Images

According to BBC, the rankings are further determined by a nation’s recent performances. An opponent’s strength and the difficulty of their path to the final is also calculated using outcome probabilities.

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From all the analysis, Brazil emerged with the highest chance of winning the World Cup with a 15.8% chance of beating the 31 other nations.

Argentina came in second with a 12.6% chance, while current World Champions came in third with a 12.2% chance.

The Three Lions of England were fifth in the probability rankings with an 8.7% chance of winning it, behind Spain in fourth with a 9.1% chance of winning it.

Here are the top 10 nations most likely to win the World Cup:

  1. Brazil 15.8%
  2. Argentina 12.6%
  3. France 12.2 %
  4. Spain 9.1%
  5. England 8.7%
  6. Germany 7.8%
  7. Netherlands 7.2%
  8. Portugal 5.8%
  9. Belgium 5.4%
  10. Denmark 3.5%

In terms of African teams, Senegal has been tipped as the most likely African nation to go all the way to win the tournament with a 0.9% chance.

Messi names 2 World Cup favourites

Sports Brief also earlier reported on Lionel Messi’s take on the nations that pose the biggest threat for Argentina in their World Cup quest.

La Albiceleste, backed by an in-form Messi, are among the favorites to win the World Cup that will begin in Qatar on November 20 although the PSG star is weary of two other nations.

Messi believes Brazil and France will be Argentina’s biggest threat to winning the tournament in Qatar due to the quality of players both nations possess.

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Rene Otinga
Rene Otinga is a sports journalist with over eight years of working experience in digital media. Rene's experience includes working as a Copywriter at X News Kenya and