Harry Kane Overtakes Ousmane Dembele in Ballon d’Or Power Rankings Despite PSG’s UCL Title

Harry Kane has moved to the top of the Ballon d’Or probability standings despite Bayern Munich’s exit from the UEFA Champions League semi-finals, overtaking Paris Saint-Germain’s Ousmane Dembele who helped his club lift the UCL trophy.

According to Polymarket, a betting and prediction market platform, Kane now holds a 26% probability of winning the 2026 Ballon d’Or, with Dembele sitting just behind at 23%. The French winger had previously led the rankings but has since ceded top spot. Lamine Yamal is third at 11%, followed by Kylian Mbappe and Vitinha, both on 8%.

Kane’s remarkable domestic campaign has been central to the market’s assessment. The Bayern Munich striker registered an astonishing 61 goals in just 51 appearances across all competitions this season — a figure that has reportedly strengthened his candidacy even in the absence of a Champions League medal.

Dembele, for his part, endured a disrupted first half of the season due to injury before returning to full fitness in February. From that point forward, he was instrumental in PSG’s run to back-to-back Champions League titles. In the final, he scored an equaliser against Arsenal — a goal that contributed to a season tally of 20 goals and 11 assists in 40 appearances across all competitions.

The full June standings published by Polymarket Sports on June 2, 2026 also list Michael Olise and Declan Rice at 3% each, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia at 5%, Raphael Leao at 3%, and Cristiano Ronaldo at 2%.

The Ballon d’Or, awarded annually by France Football, traditionally factors in both club and international performances over the calendar year. With the 2026 FIFA World Cup — co-hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada — approaching, tournament performances are expected to carry significant weight in the final standings.

Dembele’s candidacy could be bolstered considerably should France mount a strong World Cup campaign. France were runners-up at the 2022 edition, losing to Argentina on penalties in the final in Qatar, and will be among the favourites in North America. Kane, meanwhile, will be looking to lead England deep into the tournament after years of near-misses on the international stage.

The closeness of the current standings reflects a competitive field in which multiple players retain realistic claims to the award. With the World Cup yet to begin, the Ballon d’Or race remains open.