Japan vs Samoa 2023 Rugby World Cup Predictions, Odds, Picks and Betting Preview

Japan vs Samoa 2023 Rugby World Cup Predictions, Odds, Picks and Betting Preview

Joel Reyes
September 28, 2023 at 7:38 AM
  • Japan lost to England in their last match at the 2023 Rugby World Cup
  • Samoa lost to Argentina in their last World Cup match on Friday
  • The Brave Blossoms have won two of their last three World Cup meetings with Samoa

Japan and Samoa dropped to 1-1 at the 2023 Rugby World Cup after suffering heartbreaking defeats to England and Argentina, respectively.

They will look to keep their World Cup dreams alive when they face each other this coming Thursday.

Read on as Sports Brief brings you a preview of this Pool D matchup.

Samoa, Japan, Samoa vs Japan, 2023 Rugby World Cup, Rugby World Cup, Kazuki Himeno, Brian Alainu'u'ese
Samoa's Brian Alainu'u'ese in action against Argentina; Japan's Kazuki Himeno in action against England. Images: Paul Harding.
Source: Getty Images

Japan vs. Samoa Betting Preview

Where: Stadium de Toulouse, France

When: Thursday, September 28 - 9:00pm local time

Odds: Japan (+4.5) vs. Samoa (-4.5) - view all lines

Betting on Japan (+4.5)

Japan had a golden opportunity to pick up their second win of the 2023 Rugby World Cup in their last match against England.

The Brave Blossoms sliced the deficit to just one point, 13-12, early in the second half after Rikiya Matsuda converted his fourth penalty of the match, per the BBC.

Their rally fizzled, however, as England scored 21 unanswered points to grab a 34-12 win.

Lewis Ludlam, Courtney Lawes, Joe Marchant, and Freddie Steward scored the tries for the Red and Whites, who sent Japan crashing to their first loss of the tournament.

They will look to get their campaign back on track this coming Thursday when they face Samoa. Japan have won two of their last three matches against the Samoans at the World Cup.

The Brave Blossoms promoted fullback Lomano Lemeki and outside center Dylan Riley from the bench. They replaced Semisi Masirewa, who suffered a tournament-ending leg injury in the loss to England, and Tomoki Osada, who was dropped to the reserves.

Betting on Samoa (-4.5)

Samoa will need to lessen their mistakes for them to beat Japan this Thursday. A costly error with just 28 seconds on the clock doomed their upset bid against Argentina.

Full-back Duncan Paia'aua was sent to the sin bin in the opening minute after needlessly tackling Argentina's Santiago Carreras in the air, per The Guardian.

The Pumas took full advantage, with wing Emiliano Boffelli converting his own try and kicking three penalties in the contest. He scored 16 points to lead Argentina to their first win in this year's World Cup.

Sama Malolo made things interesting late in the second half after he crossed over the line for the first try conceded by the Pumas at this World Cup.

Alai D'Angelo Leuila's conversion following Malolo's try trimmed Argentina's lead to six points in the dying minutes.

Samoa's rally came up short, though, with Nicolas Sanchez's long-range penalty sealing the victory for the Pumas.

Samoa will fancy their chances of beating Japan in Toulouse as they defeated the Brave Blossoms in their last meeting.

Samoa edged past Japan 24-22 in their previous matchup last July in the opening round of the Pacific Nations Series.

Samoa shook up their back row and midfield for the must-win match against Japan, inserting Lyon No. 8 Jordan Taufua and New South Wales flanker Taleni Seu to the starting lineup, per the Associated Press.

Writer's Prediction

Japan (+4.5) bounce back with a narrow win over Samoa.

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New Zealand vs. Italy Betting Preview

Sports Brief also previewed the Rugby World Cup match between New Zealand and Italy.

The All Blacks bounced back from their opening Pool A loss to France with a 71-3 thumping of Namibia.

The mighty Pacific islanders have been installed as 27.5-point favourites over the Azzurri.

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Joel Reyes
Joel Reyes is a sports editor at with a Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of the Philippines. He has eight years of work experience in sports writing.
Rugby World Cup