Paris Saint-Germain hold a one-goal aggregate advantage heading into the second leg of their UEFA Champions League semi-final against Bayern Munich on May 6, but the numbers behind Tuesday night’s 5-4 victory at the Parc des Princes raise serious questions about which side truly deserved to progress.
The most telling figure from the match is the Expected Goals (xG) data. Bayern Munich registered an xG of 3.06, compared to PSG’s 1.90 — a gap of 1.16 that reflects Bayern’s clear superiority in terms of chance creation and quality. PSG created just two big chances across the 90 minutes and missed one of them, while Bayern carved out six. By the most widely used measure of performance in modern football analytics, the visiting side should have been comfortable winners.
The nine-goal thriller unfolded as follows: Harry Kane opened the scoring in the 17th minute, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia equalised in the 24th, João Neves put PSG ahead in the 33rd, Michael Olise levelled again in the 41st, Ousmane Dembélé restored PSG’s lead in the fifth minute of first-half stoppage time, Kvaratskhelia made it 4-2 in the 56th minute, before Bayern mounted a late recovery to finish 5-4. The scoreline, dramatic as it appears, obscures a significant imbalance in underlying performance.
A second major factor was the performance — or absence of performance — from Bayern goalkeeper Manuel Neuer. PSG registered 12 attempts in total, with five on target. Every single one of those five shots resulted in a goal. Neuer finished the match with a save percentage of 0%, becoming, according to available data, the first goalkeeper in the last 16 UEFA Champions League seasons to concede five or more goals in a knockout fixture without recording a single save. For a player widely regarded as one of the greatest goalkeepers of all time, the result represented an historically poor individual night.
In contrast, PSG goalkeeper Matvey Safonov was kept busy throughout, facing a sustained Bayern offensive. The Russian shot-stopper’s contribution was arguably as important as any outfield player’s in securing the result for Luis Enrique’s side.
Bayern manager Vincent Kompany was absent from the touchline, serving a suspension for the first leg. His side’s performance, particularly in the attacking third, suggested they will feel confident about the return fixture at the Allianz Arena. If Bayern replicate their chance-creation output and Neuer returns to his expected level, the aggregate tie remains very much open.
Luis Enrique, for his part, offered a characteristically ambiguous assessment of the result in his post-match comments. “We deserved to win, we deserved to lose, we deserved to draw,” the PSG head coach said, a remark that, intentionally or not, appeared to acknowledge the chaotic and unpredictable nature of the evening.
The second leg takes place in Munich on May 6. PSG travel with a 5-4 first-leg advantage — a lead that the xG data suggests they were fortunate to secure, but one that counts all the same when the aggregate is settled.
