Liverpool host Paris Saint-Germain in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League quarter-final on April 13, 2026, requiring at least a two-goal swing to advance. The Reds were outclassed in the first leg at the Parc des Princes, registering an Expected Goals figure of just 0.17 — reportedly their lowest under manager Arne Slot — in a 2-0 defeat that could arguably have been heavier.
Slot’s decision to deploy a defence-heavy 3-5-2 formation in Paris drew significant attention, particularly his choice to leave Mohamed Salah on the bench throughout. Despite the tactical caution, Liverpool were second best for large portions of the match and, according to the numbers, fortunate not to concede three or four goals. The result left PSG with one foot firmly in the semi-finals.
Liverpool did restore some momentum domestically, ending a three-match losing run with a 2-0 victory over Fulham at the weekend. PSG, meanwhile, were not in action after successfully petitioning Ligue 1 authorities to postpone their scheduled fixture against title-chasing Lens. Lens’ objections to the postponement were rejected by the Ligue de Football Professionel, a decision that handed Luis Enrique’s side additional preparation time ahead of the return fixture.
On the injury front, Liverpool have been dealt a fresh blow with Curtis Jones ruled out after the midfielder was forced off at half-time against Fulham with a groin problem. Hugo Ekitike and Milo Kerkez, both fully rested at the weekend, are expected to start. Teenager Rio Ngumoha has also staked a claim for inclusion following a landmark individual performance — the youngster became Liverpool’s youngest-ever Premier League scorer at Anfield. Defensively, Virgil van Dijk and Ryan Gravenberch are each one yellow card away from suspension, meaning both would miss the semi-final first leg if booked.
For PSG, Bradley Barcola is reportedly in contention to return to the matchday squad after recovering from an ankle injury ahead of schedule. However, Fabian Ruiz remains sidelined. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, like Van Dijk and Gravenberch on the Liverpool side, is also one booking away from a semi-final ban.
Possible starting lineups reflect the stakes. Liverpool are expected to line up as: Mamardashvili; Szoboszlai, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Wirtz, Ngumoha; Ekitike. PSG are anticipated to field: Safonov; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Neves; Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia.
The head-to-head record between the two clubs offers limited encouragement for Liverpool. PSG’s first-leg win means there have been no draws across seven meetings between the sides in all competitions, with Liverpool claiming two of their three victories on home soil. Their most recent encounters came in last season’s round of 16, where Liverpool won 1-0 in Paris before losing 1-0 at Anfield — a 1-1 aggregate result that PSG resolved 4-1 on penalties. PSG have won both previous two-legged ties against Liverpool, including the 1996/97 UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup semi-final, which they won 3-2 on aggregate. Liverpool, however, have progressed from six of their last eight Champions League quarter-final ties, though they have not reached the semi-final stage since their run to the 2021/22 final.
Recent form in the Champions League tells a similar story. Liverpool’s UCL form reads: W W W L W L, while PSG’s reads: D W D W W W — a sequence that underlines the French side’s consistency in the competition. With Salah potentially playing his final Champions League match for the club, along with Andrew Robertson, the second leg carries significant individual as well as collective weight for Liverpool’s outgoing figures.
A correct score prediction of Liverpool 1-3 PSG — giving PSG a 5-1 aggregate victory — reflects the balance of probability, with both teams to score and over 2.5 goals appearing likely given the attacking quality PSG possess and Liverpool’s need to commit forward.
